Warming caused by human activities is also increasing the frequency and intensity of floods in some parts of the world and of some droughts, but the link is less systematic, according to the document published on Wednesday and presented as a guide for journalists. .
There’s no doubt that climate change is changing the rules of the game when it comes to heat wavestold AFP one of the authors, Friederike Otto, of Imperial College London.
Every heatwave in the world today is stronger and more likely to occur due to human-induced climate changeinsist the researcher and her co-author Ben Clarke, of the University of Oxford, in the document.
don’t be too carefulheat waves are
related to global warmingthey say to the media covering these heat waves.
Until recently, scientists were reluctant to formally link any particular event to climate change, but so-called attribution science has made tremendous progress in recent years, helping to identify and quantify responsibility for warming in a weather event, sometimes within a few days.
For example, Friederike Otto and her colleagues from World Weather Attribution estimated that the extraordinary heat wave that hit North America in June 2021, with a record 49.6°C in Canada, would have been
almost impossible without heating.
This spring’s heat wave in India and Pakistan is still being analysed, but°C and +3°C”,”text”:”what we see now will be normal, even cold, in a world between +2°C and +3°C”}}’>what we see now will be normal, even cold, in a world between +2°C and +3°Ccomments Friederike Otto.
So far, the world has gained almost 1.2°C on average compared to the pre-industrial era.
But warming is not necessarily equally culpable in all extreme events, other than heat waves. Experts insist on the need to take into account the role played by other factors in certain disasters (territorial planning, water management, etc.).
And sometimes climate change has nothing to do with it. Thus, the experts of World Weather Attribution estimated that warming played only a minimal role in the exceptional drought and famine that hit Madagascar from 2019 to 2021: the projected increase in droughts on this island is projected by climate models from +2 °C.