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Oil: towards a further slight increase in OPEC + production

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However, several analysts are calling on the alliance to step up the pace: they are worried about the slow increase in black gold mining, while soaring energy prices are fueling a surge in inflation across the world. .

In December, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies via the OPEC + agreement had already decided to raise production, despite concerns about Omicron which had caused prices to drop.

The organization had thus responded to Washington’s fears about prices at the pump, attracting the thanks of the White House, even as crude prices started up again.

This lift suggests that market players are now less worried on the effect of the Covid-19 variant on demand, Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS, told AFP.

A diagnosis shared by the 13 members of theOrganization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, who estimated at a technical meeting on Monday that the consequences on demand would be moderate and would not affect the market in the long term.

On Tuesday, they meet their ten other partners, first of all within the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee before the plenary meeting by videoconference.

2021 and increases its production by 400000daily barrels in February “,” text “:” I expect the group to stick to their plan adopted in May 2021 and increase production by 400,000 daily barrels in February “}}”>I expect the group to stick to its plan adopted in May 2021 and increase production by 400,000 barrels a day in February., says Staunovo.

In reality, OPEC + is struggling to achieve such a volume. It should be remembered that an increase in the authorized production threshold is not the same thing as a real increase, underlines in a note Bjarne Shieldrop, analyst at SEB, who notices that several countries are already struggling to increase their extractions.

Nigeria and Angola are the two most obvious examples, but it is important to note that Russia also did not increase production in December, a sign that it may already have reached maximum capacity., she emphasizes.

Russia, which is among the producers who have allied themselves to theOrganization of Petroleum Exporting Countries under OPEC +, weighs as much as Saudi Arabia in the crude market.

Another heavyweight in difficulty, Iran, whose exports are limited by US sanctions.

And while talks resumed at the end of November in Vienna between Tehran and the West to try to bring the United States back into the nuclear deal, with the Islamic Republic lifting punitive measures, the market seems for now skeptical about the return of Iranian barrels.

A failure (of the negotiations) would lead to new sanctions, but also to a rise in tensions in the Middle East and the Gulf, which could further drive up prices., warns Mr. Shieldrop.

A new secretary general

On the eve of Tuesday’s summit, theOrganization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has appointed a new secretary general, the Kuwaiti Haitham Al-Ghais, veteran of the sector, will succeed in August and for three years the Nigerian Mohammed Barkindo.

In office since 2016, it is under the leadership of Mr. Barkindo that theOrganization of Petroleum Exporting Countries regained its status as a leader in the crude market thanks to the alliance Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries+.

As another chapter begins with the New Year, let us remember with pride what we have accomplished through this historic cooperation., welcomed Mr. Barkindo on Monday after the technical meeting of theOrganization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

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