The Central Bank publishes a survey of experts every month, and in April they were even more pessimistic than in March about the economy’s development due to the waves of sanctions hitting the country following its offensive against Ukraine.
They forecast GDP falling by 9.2% in 2022, against -8% last month, and inflation of 22% (against 20%), according to the latest edition of this report published on Thursday.
These forecasts are more pessimistic than those of theIMF which anticipates an 8.5% contraction in Russian GDP this year.
Presenting the Russian Central Bank’s 2021 report to MPs on Thursday, its President Elvira Nabiullina pointed out that the economy was facing a huge restructuring challenge given the scale of the sanctions weighing on its financial system and international trade involving Russia.
Almost everything has to go through changesshe said, citing pell-mell the quest for new suppliers, new outlets or even labour.
She took the example of the sewing accessories sectors
whose main suppliers were in the European Unionciting in particular the buttons.
Other examples are chemicals used in the paper industry and food packaging. Replace these products
will take timeshe warned.
: many ports are closed to Russian ships, there are restrictions imposed on Russian carriers toEU“,”text”:”Exporters must find new logistics: many ports are closed to Russian ships, there are restrictions imposed on Russian carriers to the EU”}}”>Exporters have to find new logistics: many ports are closed to Russian ships, there are restrictions imposed on Russian transporters toEUnoted Ms. Nabioullina again, according to the text of her speech posted online by the Central Bank.
You have to create a [nouvelle] infrastructure, we have the means, but it will also take time. Difficulties appear in all sectors, in large and small companiesshe noted.
President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly admitted that the sanctions create significant difficulties, but he has also judged that the
blitzkrieg Western economy had failed and that Russia had the opportunity to rebuild and diversify its economy, which is highly dependent on hydrocarbon exports.