Home WORLD AMERICA What if Trump wasn’t the Republican nominee in 2024?

What if Trump wasn’t the Republican nominee in 2024?

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The Republican primaries that are going well this summer show that Trump has succeeded in defeating candidates fromestablishment of the Republican Party by placing his pawns that convey his completely wacky theory of the 2020 election stolen by massive fraud. The victories of pro-Trump and pro-Big Lie candidates (The Big Lie) shook some states this week like Arizona or Michigan.

But in the states of Georgia, Idaho and the two Carolinas, it’s a different story. Trumpist foals have been ousted from the nomination by more moderate and, in some cases, more eligible candidates.

Media shunning Trump

The trend is evident this summer if we look a little FoxNews, his once favorite network. Formerly, because for a few months, the network of Rupert Murdoch seems to let go of him little by little. Much rarer are his appearances on the morning show Fox and Friends. He even got angry as his favorite show reported on a poll where his presumed main rival, Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida, appeared to be gaining favor with Republican voters.

Donald Trump may have more potential competitors than he thinks for the Republican nomination.

Donald Trump may have more potential competitors than he thinks for the Republican nomination.

Photo: Getty Images/Drew Angerer

Deprived of large-scale social networks like Twitter and Facebook, Trump is relegated to his platform Truth, which is a business flop he doesn’t believe too much in himself, as he rarely posts statuses there. To convey his words full of half-truths, imaginary figures and the proven lie of the myth of the stolen election, he only has small far-right networks like OAN, newsmax or RSBN which are entirely vested in it and which, little by little, are being withdrawn from the lists of channels broadcast by cable distributors or Internet platforms.

As for newspapers like the wall street journal and the New York Post, also held by Murdoch, recent unflattering editorials for the former president have entrenched the fact that he is no longer making money as before.

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The MAGA bubble

Of course, his MAGA disciples who participate in his popular rallies with much smaller crowds than in his presidential era are convinced that their master is full of voters. The only thing he gets is full of money that his generous little donors continue to send him faithfully, filling the coffers of the defeated president in 2020.

By focusing all his efforts on the famous Big Lie of the Stolen Election, Trump is not going after the many Republican voters who are, first, moved on and, second, far more interested in voting for solutions to address to inflation, to reform immigration or to reduce the size of government spending.

And then, let’s not forget the revelations from the investigation into the January 6, 2021, uprising that increasingly point to Trump’s involvement and incitement in this inglorious event in American history. Even if he weren’t brought to justice, that won’t erase the reputational damage in the eyes of some Republicans.

The Big Lie of the stolen election in 2020 cannot be the only theme defended to win favor with Republican voters, even if Donald Trump has been hitting on this nail for two years.

The Big Lie of the stolen election in 2020 cannot be the only theme defended to win favor with Republican voters, even if Donald Trump has been hitting on this nail for two years.

Photo: Getty Images/Joe Raedle

All of this leaves plenty of room for other candidates capable of uniting this populist right-wing current, and who would also be able to fight against the left and win the popular vote in 2024. In short, Ron DeSantis is not a long way off and is gradually eating away at market share among the Republican electorate. Where Trump appears to be plateauing in support, the Florida governor still has room to rise in right-wing opinion polls. And he probably won’t be the only one.

Hide this candidate who cannot be seen

No wonder in this context that the elephant in the room has become the one some Republican heavyweights would like to see become a mouse on the eve of the midterm elections.

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Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee talks of disaster if Trump announces his candidacy just before this crucial contest for control of Congress. Distracting the public from these November elections [par une annonce de candidature]would be a huge mistake that could have disastrous consequencessaid Huckabee on FoxNews.

Republican House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy himself encouraged the former White House tenant to delay his nomination announcement.

That Trump is a candidate therefore may not guarantee him the presidential nomination. For now, he’s dangling it, because it allows him to salivate his supporters and especially to continue to garner the millions of dollars in funding that he can use as he sees fit as long as he does not declare his candidacy. .

And Biden then?

If ever Trump does indeed get beaten to the post by another candidate for 2024, what about Joe Biden? The chances of him running for a second term are pretty slim. The one who will be 81 years old during the next presidential election is not overflowing with energy and is paying the political price of an inflation that is hurting the wallets of Americans.

President Biden is not unanimous within the Democratic Party for a second presidential candidacy.

President Biden is not unanimous within the Democratic Party for a second presidential candidacy.

Photo: Getty Images/Pool

Some elected Democrats suggest that he should hand over to someone more combative and, of course, necessarily younger. But, here again, difficult for the moment to find the elected official who would tick all the necessary boxes.

Should we prepare for a 2024 duel whose competitors are still completely unknown at this point? After all, in a few months in the United States, anything is possible in politics. Even a second Trump candidacy…

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